Monsoon Wedding

Hello! is just the latest celebrity magazine launching in India. Other print publications such as Cosmopolitan, Marie Claire, Seventeen, Maxim and Time Out are already on the newsstands with more on the day. India's English speaking population with rising disposable income & consumer spending makes the market ready for entertainment and lifestyle media brand imports from the west. However, most Indians prefer reading about Bollywood celebrities than the western ones, hence making the brand more valuable than its content.

According to a new report from Pricewaterhousecoopers, India's M&E industry is forecasted to outgrow the general economy every year, to double by 2011, to US$22.5B. India is a rare market where the print business is still growing. It is estimated to reach only 220MM people, while about 370MM literate readers are not reached by any publication.

Also, the TV industry is forecasted to grow 22% annually to reach US$11.78B in 2011, while print would grow 13% annually to US$5.27B. Internet advertising would grow at 43% annually to a measly $216.50MM in 2010. Only an estimated 32MM Indians were exposed to the Internet as of 2006, with 21MM regular users, leading to a great growth but still pale in comparison to other parts of the world.

Moreover, adoption of mobile phones and the internet as media consumption platforms are increasing. Because of infrastructure limitations, the former may leap-frog the latter in terms of adoption, especially by the rising middle class and the hip younger generation.

So, how is this news new media related? I think these factors point to a "perfect storm" of opportunities to launch multi-platform media brands in India, with print publication & television platforms leading the charges. Opportunities abound for including new media platforms to those brands almost immediately, without having to wait for 80 years (like in the US) for technology adoption to catch up.

We just have to remember that newspaper was once new media too. Soon, mobile & internet media delivery will become as common as online shopping, but with instant gratification.

The Search for Spock

While researching the topic of personalization in the new media world, I came across Mark Cuban’s blog entry from almost a year ago, on finding content in an unlimited video on demand world. It’s tough enough to get viewers to tune in, with linear channels, where (a) viewers are constantly reminded what show is coming next, and (b) some channels, particular on cable, specialize in certain type of programming (ala HBO, FX, Food). What happens when the viewers have to fend for themselves?

At NATPE this past January, one constant point rehashed in most panels was video discovery in this age of plenty. Technology can help with the platform distributions (ie Brightcove) by setting up metadata for video search engines (ie Blinkx). But then, who is assigning the metadata and why should they be trusted? This is where the “wisdom of crowds” is called upon. Similar to the recommendation engines for online media (iTunes), books (ala Amazon) and DVD rentals (ie Netflix), which both draw from databases of reviews and recommendations from other users, a video consumer would then need a personalized video search engine to tell them what they would want to watch: certain genres or topics of their interests plus new, random & unexpected clips that might pique their interest too.

StumbleUpon, a browser toolbar that helps user find interesting website to stumble onto, is extending that model to online video. While it is addicted as it is now just to discover interest videos, imagine what they can do, if they finetune their “recommendations” to find me what I (and others like me) would like to watch.

Now, imagine if your video search & recommendation engine is portable across all three screens, TV, online & mobile. Personalize once, propagate everywhere. Now, I’d be total control of my video consumption, wouldn’t I? A TV Guide on steroids.

Back to the Future

In a somewhat contradictory (to my yesterday’s posting) survey by Advertiser Perception (a survey of 2400 media planners) , more ad executives are planning to increase their TV ads budget in the next 6 months than for online ads. At least with 2 points in time, we can start mapping out the long term, almost liken it to comparing short-term interest rates with the long term one, where more volatility exists in the former.

Despite strong growth in online advertising, spending on TV ads still remains at a higher level than for online ads. According to WPP’s GroupM’s report “This Year, Next Year: Worldwide Media and Marketing Forecasts”, which forecasts contributions to advertising growth in 2007, spending in TV ads will increase more than that of online.

2007 Growth in ad spending
TV (North America / WorldWide) = 46% / 50%
Online (North America / WorldWide) = 41% / 28%

Some possible factors for this, as per the report:
1) Households watching Spanish language TV grew faster than expected and advertiers are starting to chase them. Over 70% of Hispanic households will have multi-channel options by 2010.
2) US TV networks continue to expand into new media, hence, offering a portfolio of diverse outlets for their advertisers.
3) Online advertising is too efficient in stream-lining costs that even with similar percentage growth, dollar growth online would be less than for TV

But eventually, online advertising growth will takeover, and all will be right in the world again. Of course, TV by then may be more interactive and be coming to us in many different ways.

The Search for Signs of Intelligent Life in the Universe

AAF (American Advertising Federation) recently issued their annual survey on industry trends. The survey asked advertising industry executives how much they thought ad spending on TV would shift to online video by 2010. Over half responded that they expected to move 20% or more of their TV advertising budget into online video. Even if the TV ad market is conservatively estimated to be $60B (not the $74B as estimated by Google), this shift translates to $12B in ad spend previously allocated to TV alone (not including ad dollars already allocated to online). That’s a 3,000% leap from last year’s (2006) $410MM ad spend. Rather than quoting my crude estimate, a Park Associates study stated that online video revenues will pass $7B in 2010, with 85% of that (almost $6B) coming from ads associated with TV, news & user generated content.

With that much money chasing online videos, its supply would surely keep up until equilibrium. Even that may not happen for a while, because the biggest barrier to consuming online videos lies in its discovery. If we thought flipping through 500 TV channels on our cable box is a tedious, wait till we get unlimited video channels. Discovery of video will be the immediate challenge. As consumers are used to search engines, reviews and recommendations to find what they are looking for, they will expect those tools to be available for video discovery as well. Video search engines like Blinkx, and personalization tools (ie Amazon’s & Netflix’s recommendation engines) would be in the next wave of products. The idea is to help your consumers find what they are looking for and they will thank you for that, and maybe watch a few ads in the process.