something old, something new...
New media is not so new anymore but finally its impact broadcast television can be quantified. Though not a perfect causality, estimates for this year’s total broadcast television upfront has decreased to $8.9B (from $9.1B last year and $9.3B the year before) correlates with the most common reasons given by ad buyers, reported NYTimes recently. The networks are no longer gatekeepers who have the advantage over ad buyers especially in this world of new media such as online video, mobile, podcasts, iTunes, etc. (sidenote: it’s ironic to think of them as gatekeepers since their the content owning relatives are trying to bypass their own gatekeepers, the cable MSOs and the like.)
Another possible explanation is that advertisers are taking a chance on the scatter market when they are more sure about what tv programs to advertise on (since most new tv shows get cancelled unceremoniously – “Emily’s Reasons Why Not” - and the actual fall tv schedule will bear no resemblance to what was unveiled during the upfront) and on which platform. Definitely a smart move since 3 months is an eternity in new media time and who knows what the television business would look like in May 2007!
Smart networks (ABC & Scripps) have already been testing ad-supported broadband video and with much horn-tooting (11M streams in 29 days!). However, can they deliver their ROI promise? In this world of online traffic analytics & accountability, there’s no more hiding behind the fuzzy measurement (ala Nielsen Tv ratings).
A slight caveat – this being a mid-term election year – local tv tends to better ad sales than odd-numbered years, because of political ad spending. So, overall tv ad numbers may end up being flat, compared to last year. However, are the campaign managers smart enough to repurpose their spending somewhere else with ROI? Most likely not this year. Maybe in the 2008 elections, with the maturation of SEO & SEM.
Another possible explanation is that advertisers are taking a chance on the scatter market when they are more sure about what tv programs to advertise on (since most new tv shows get cancelled unceremoniously – “Emily’s Reasons Why Not” - and the actual fall tv schedule will bear no resemblance to what was unveiled during the upfront) and on which platform. Definitely a smart move since 3 months is an eternity in new media time and who knows what the television business would look like in May 2007!
Smart networks (ABC & Scripps) have already been testing ad-supported broadband video and with much horn-tooting (11M streams in 29 days!). However, can they deliver their ROI promise? In this world of online traffic analytics & accountability, there’s no more hiding behind the fuzzy measurement (ala Nielsen Tv ratings).
A slight caveat – this being a mid-term election year – local tv tends to better ad sales than odd-numbered years, because of political ad spending. So, overall tv ad numbers may end up being flat, compared to last year. However, are the campaign managers smart enough to repurpose their spending somewhere else with ROI? Most likely not this year. Maybe in the 2008 elections, with the maturation of SEO & SEM.
posted by KW at 5:05 PM
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